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Simulation of New Subjects

Source: vignettes/NMsim-basics.Rmd
NMsim-basics.Rmd

Built 2024-11-05 using NMsim 0.1.3.951.

Objectives

This vignettes aims at enabling you to

  • Use NMsim to simulate Nonmem models with a given input data set

  • Distinguish between and perform the most common types of simulations:

  • new subjects,

  • Simulate multiple new subjects and derive prediction intervals

  • Simulate more than one Nonmem model in one NMsim() function call

  • Important arguments

  • Speed up NMsim by avoiding large table statements

  • Add residual variability to an already performed model simulation using NMsim.

Prerequisites

You should have configured NMsim with the path to the Nonmem installation and maybe also PSN. See NMsim-config.html. Don’t worry - it is very easy.

Estimation based on single dose, simulation of multiple doses

The situation is like this: We collected PK and PD data from a single ascending dose trial on a drug candidate. A PK model was estimated using Nonmem. We have on file the model input and output control streams (here with extensions .mod and .lst respetively), parameter estimates (.ext).

We want to predict concentrations in a multiple dose regimen. This is a regimen that we have not studied in clinical trials so far, and we have decided to use population PK simulations for this purpose.

The Simulation data set

You can create a Nonmem-compatible simulation data set however you want. We will keep that as a separate topic and read one that was already created in NMsim-DataCreate.html using tools provided with NMsim to make that task simpler and faster to do:

dat.sim <- read.csv(system.file("examples/derived/dat_sim1.csv",package="NMsim"))

Simulation of a new subject

This is the first time we are using NMsim, and we just want to try the simplest thing we can think of. Simulate a new subject on the considerd multiple dose regimen with our estimated PK model from the single dose study.

file.mod <- system.file("examples/nonmem/xgxr021.mod",package="NMsim")

simres <- NMsim(file.mod=file.mod,
                data=dat.sim)

We plot population and individual predictions as the simulations of (in this case) the typical subject and one simulated subject. The variable called Y is the individual prediction plus residual variability. paper. The code is included to show that the results from NMsim are ready to be plotted. The main reason data is transformed to long format (melt) is to get ggplot2 to generate the legend automatically.

datl <- as.data.table(simres) |>
    melt(measure.vars=cc(PRED,IPRED,Y))

ggplot(datl,aes(TIME,value,colour=variable))+
    geom_line(data=function(x)x[variable!="Y"])+
    geom_point(data=function(x)x[variable=="Y"])+
    labs(x="Hours since first dose",y="Concentration (ng/mL)")

The reason we can plot a simulation with residual variability is that the control stream includes a variable Y defined with residual variability in $ERROR:

  Y=F+F*ERR(1)+ERR(2)

More on residual variability in case you don’t have such a line later in this paper.

What happened?

NMsim uses automation tools from NMdata to

  • Save the data in a Nonmem-friendly format
  • Create a simulation control stream based on the referenced input control stream
  • Update the initial values based with estimated values
  • Modify input data-related sections for reading input siulation data
  • Modify output table file names and paths to generate simulation output tables
  • Run Nonmem
  • Read output tables and combine them with input data into one data object

The generated files have all been stored in a folder called NMsim next to the estimation control stream. More on that shortly in the section “A few basic additional arguments to NMsim”.

Let’s see the first few lines of the returned object:

simres[1:3]
#>      ROW    ID  TIME  EVID   CMT   AMT    II  ADDL    DV   MDV   TVKA   TVV2
#>    <num> <int> <num> <num> <num> <num> <num> <num> <num> <num>  <num>  <num>
#> 1:     1     1     0     1     1   300     0     0     0     1 2.1666 75.729
#> 2:     2     1     0     2     2    NA    NA    NA     0     1 2.1666 75.729
#> 3:     3     1     1     2     2    NA    NA    NA     0     1 2.1666 75.729
#>      TVV3   TVCL     KA     V2     V3     CL      Q  IPRED      Y   PRED   RES
#>     <num>  <num>  <num>  <num>  <num>  <num>  <num>  <num>  <num>  <num> <num>
#> 1: 150.06 13.978 2.1666 63.464 150.06 17.944 8.4865 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000     0
#> 2: 150.06 13.978 2.1666 63.464 150.06 17.944 8.4865 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000     0
#> 3: 150.06 13.978 2.1666 63.464 150.06 17.944 8.4865 3.1946 3.0486 2.8907     0
#>     WRES                   trt                model
#>    <num>                <char>               <char>
#> 1:     0 300 mg then 150 mg QD NMsim_xgxr021_noname
#> 2:     0 300 mg then 150 mg QD NMsim_xgxr021_noname
#> 3:     0 300 mg then 150 mg QD NMsim_xgxr021_noname

Notice a few things about the returned data:

  • All columns from the output tables defined in the input control stream are there. We will soon learn how to modify this
  • Input data columns are there too (like trt).
  • Additional columns (model and nmout) may be familiar to NMdata users.
  • We will soon learn where the “_noname” in the model column comes from.

How to (re-)read the simulation results

NMsim() creates an .rds file with information about where all the results are stored. It is named based on the model name and the name.sim argument. NMsim provides the path to it in the console at every run. You can also specify exactly where it should be stored and the file name using the file.res argument. Run the function NMreadSim on this file to (re-)read all the simulation results.

NMreadSim also supports the wait argument making it wait for all the simulation results to be available in case you submitted a large simulation to a cluster and want to continue your execution only when it’s all done.

Multiple models

Before we continue with that model, we want to compare a simulation based on this model to another model we are considering. NMsim can do this and collect the data into one object:

files.2.mod <- system.file(c("examples/nonmem/xgxr021.mod","examples/nonmem/xgxr114.mod"),package="NMsim")
simres.2models <- NMsim(file.mod=files.2.mod,
                        data=dat.sim,
                        file.res="simulate-results/simres_2models_paths.rds"
                        )

We included the file.res argument to specify one single rds file because if not NMsim would create one for each of the two models simulated. We can re-read the results like this:

simres.2models <- NMreadSim("simulate-results/simres_2models_paths.rds")

In case multiple models are provided, NMsim simply loops over them. It does collect all the results, and we can use the model column to separate the two simulations. Since we are so far just simulating on subject with each model, it makes litlle sense to compare individual preditions. We just plot the population prediction (PRED):

ggplot(simres.2models,aes(TIME,PRED,colour=model))+geom_line()+
    facet_wrap(c("trt"),scales="free")

For simplicity, we shall show the rest of the examples for just one model. Any of them could be run on multiple models the same way as shown above.

A few basic additional arguments to NMsim

The first couple of examples were run with the bare minimum of arguments - estimation control stream and simulation data set. You are obviously encouraged to read the help of NMsim to learn about the many useful features it has, and you will learn some more in this vignette. But there are a few arguments that you should learn about at this point already. Here they are:

  • dir.sims Path to a folder in which all generated files will be stored. Use this to avoid NMsim will write into the directories where your estimation models are. They may not belong there at all. You may want to separate the model development step from the post-processing step. You are encouraged to explore what NMsim leaves in this directory (you will find fully reproducible simulation Nonmem runs including simulation input data).
  • dir.res while dir.sims contains all the Nonmem files, you can specify a separate directory just for compressed results. The rds files containing information about where the simulations were performed will also be saved here. This means that as soon as results have been read once, all contents of dir.sims can be purged without loss of critical data. This can save a lot of disk space.
  • name.sim Give your simulation a meaningfull name. We did not do this above, so NMsim called it “noname”.
  • table.vars Very important. This redefines the output table section from the estimation control stream to the simulation control stream. The estimation control stream may have too many variables printed (which will make Nonmem slow), or it may not have some that are useful for the simulation analysis. See how this is used below. Once you get used to this argument, you will use it very frequently.
  • wait Wait for simulation to be done and return the resulting data? If not a path to the rds file to be read with NMreadSim will be returned.
  • reuse.results If TRUE and results are found on file, those will be read instead of rerunning the simulation.
  • seed A numeric value that will be used in Nonmem’s $SIMULATION section

You will learn about a few more arguments in the next examples.

More subjects and prediction intervals

To create a prediction interval based on the selected model, we need to simulate multiple new subjects. There are two ways to easily obtain that. One is to repeat (rbind) the simulation input dataset, one repetetion per new subject, and then update the ID column to get distinct subjects.

Multiple subjects created in simulation input data

The follwing shows how one could generate 1000 subjects using data.table. (I use data.table a lot, if you can provide a good way to do this without, I am happy to include that).

dat.sim.1000 <- NMdata::egdt(
                            as.data.table(dat.sim)[,!("ID")]
                           ,
                            data.table(ID=1:1000)
                        )
dat.sim.1000[,ID:=.GRP,by=.(ID,trt)]
## order with respect to new IDs
setorder(dat.sim.1000,trt,ID,TIME,EVID)
## check dataset
NMcheckData(dat.sim.1000,type.data="sim")

We now simulate 1000 subjects by plugging in this data object:

simres.n1000.1 <- NMsim(file.mod=file.mod,
                        data=dat.sim.1000,
                        dir.sims="~/NMsim_vignette", ## where to store simulation files
                        name.sim="N1000_datarep"
                        )

Multiple subjects generated by Nonmem

The other way to simulate multiple subjects is making use of Nonmem’s SUBPROBLEMS simulation feature which makes Nonmem rerun the simulation the specified number of times. Notice that to do this, we use the dat.sim data without the 1000 replications. We then make use of the NMREP column generated by NMdata::NMscanData to redefine the ID column:

simres.n1000.2 <- NMsim(file.mod=file.mod,
                        data=dat.sim,
                        subproblems=1000,
                        dir.sims="~/NMsim_vignette", ## where to save and run Nonmem simulations
                        dir.res="simulate-results", ## where to save simulation results
                        name.sim="N1000_subproblems",
                        )
simres.n1000.2 <- as.data.table(simres.n1000.2)[,ID:=.GRP,by=.(NMREP,ID,trt)]

The two approaches are computationally about equally fast, the most significant difference probably being in Nonmem reading a smaller or larger simulation input data file. Unless the input dataset becomes very large, it is merely a question of preference of the modeler which one to use. In a case where the simulated patients need different dosing or sample schedules, the manual construction of the data is needed - because it’s not a straightforward replication.

The prediction interval

We now plot a prediction interval - in this case based on the results of the simulation using SUBPROBLEMS; this makes no difference to how to derive the prediction interval.

simres.pi <- as.data.table(simres.n1000.2)[,setNames(as.list(quantile(IPRED,probs=c(.05,.5,.95))),cc(ll,median,ul)),
                                           by=.(trt,TIME)]
simres.pi$type <- "pi"
simres.pi$pi.cover <- "90%"

p.pi.typ <- ggplot(simres.pi,aes(TIME,fill=trt))+
    geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=ll,ymax=ul,alpha=pi.cover))+
    geom_line(aes(y=median,colour=trt))+
    scale_alpha_manual(values=c("90%"=.5))+
    labs(x="Hours since first dose",y="Concentration (ng/mL)")

p.pi.typ

Read previously generated simulations

There is no need to save simulation results because they are already saved by NMsim. Instead, use arguments dir.sims, dir.res and name.sim to make sure to get a meaningful structure for the generated files. Then read the results with NMreadSim().

simres.n1000.1 <- NMreadSim("simulate-results/NMsim_xgxr021_N1000_datarep_paths.rds")

In fact, that is also what NMsim does once Nonmem has run.